The role of littoral cliffs in the niche delimitation on a microendemic plant facing climate change

article

Ferreira, Miguel R.
Almeida, Alice Maria
Quintela-Sabarís, Celestino
Roque, Natália
Fernandez, Paulo
Ribeiro, M.M.A.

Ferreira, M.R., Almeida, A.M., Quintela-Sabarís, C., Roque, N., Fernandez, P., Ribeiro, M.M., 2021. The role of littoral cliffs in the niche delimitation on a microendemic plant facing climate change. PLoS One 16, e0258976.

10.1371/journal.pone.0258976

The role of littoral cliffs in the niche delimitation on a microendemic plant facing climate change

Ecology
Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus
Global warming
Ecological niche modelling
ArcGIS
Maxent

C4 - Cloud Computing Competence Centre CENTRO-01-0145-FEDER-000019
CULTIVAR CENTRO-01-0145-FEDER-000020 .
Foundation for Science and Technology UIDB/00239/2020
Foundation for Science and Technology UIDB/05183/2020
Foundation for Science and Technology UIDB/00681/2020

2021-11-29T15:24:40Z
2021-11-29T15:24:40Z
2021

Obligate coastline taxa generally occupy very limited areas, especially when there is a close affinity with a specific coast type. Climate change can be a meaningful threat for them, reducing suitable habitat or forcing migration events. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus is an endemic plant of Portugal, known to occur only in the top of its south-western coast’s prominent cliffs. In spite of being included in the annexes II and IV of the European Habitats Directive of Natura 2000 Network, this taxon is still understudied, especially regarding the effects of climate change on its distribution. To overcome such gap, Maxent was used to model the current distribution of C. ladanifer subsp. sulcatus and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2050 and 2070) and Representation Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The results suggested an extensive range contraction in the future, and extinction is a possible scenario. The proximity to littoral cliffs is crucial for this plant’s occurrence, but these formations are irregularly distributed along the coast, hindering range expansions, further inhibited by a small dispersal capacity. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus will probably remain confined to south-western Portugal in the future, where it will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

eng