Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature1 Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

article

Quinta-Nova, L.C.
Ribeiro, Sílvia

Springer

QUINTA-NOVA, L. ; RIBEIRO, S. (2023) - Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change. In Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation (ASTI). (Short Paper).

2522-8722

Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature1 Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

Global warming
Species modeling
Environmental variables
Protected areas
Plant species

his work is supported with Portuguese national funds by FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the GEOBIOTEC - Project UIDB/04035/2020

2022-12-09T14:52:35Z
2022-12-09T14:52:35Z
2023

Climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of protected areas. Species shift their ranges under climate change to track suitable climate, mainly shifting poleward and towards higher elevation. They often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Also, climate change may result in the loss of combinations of climatic conditions that are restricted to a given protected area. For the other hand species that have a restricted presence could expand their distribution range resulting from climate change. In order to study the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park, located in the center eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Ju-niperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2060 and 2080) and Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The variables most impacting on the species distribution were the mean precipitation of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and slope. The results suggested some range expansion in the future for all three species for the studied scenarios. Those species and the vegetation where they occur will probably remain confined to center-eastern Portugal in the future, where they will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.
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